Belarus is grappling with deepening economic difficulties that have evolved into systemic issues, moving beyond isolated sectoral problems. Despite an official GDP growth figure of 1.3% recorded last year, this statistic conceals a steady erosion in economic momentum. Growth slowed progressively through the final quarters, dropping from 0.8% in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4. Projections for the first quarter of 2026 suggest only a flat year-on-year performance, primarily due to sluggish demand in Russia, a key trading partner.
Industrial output has turned negative, declining by 1.8% at the end of the previous year. This sector, once a pillar of economic stability, is now exerting downward pressure on national performance. Even increased sales of potash fertilizers and continued Russian crude oil deliveries to local refineries failed to offset the downturn at major industrial facilities, including the Minsk Tractor Plant and the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant. Industry-wide contraction could widen to between 3% and 5% in early 2026.
External support appears unlikely to reverse the trend. Belarus relies heavily on exports to Russia, whose own economy shows little sign of recovery, with forecasts pointing to further weakening. Domestic consumption has also lost steam: growth in internal demand halved in 2025, falling from 12% to 6%, leaving no buffer against external shocks.
Monetary policy adds another layer of vulnerability. The National Bank’s push to stimulate activity raises expectations of looser monetary conditions in Q1, increasing the risk of inflationary flare-ups. Core inflation already surpassed 7% by year-end, and analysts anticipate further upward pressure in the near term.
According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, these converging factors point not to a potential crisis, but to an expected trajectory—making economic decline the most probable baseline outcome for Belarus in the coming months.
— news from Ukrinform
— News Original —
Belarus’ economic weakness becomes systemic – intel
The state of the Belarusian economy gives grounds to predict further stagnation, and in the event of a deterioration in external conditions, a rapid decline. n nAccording to Ukrinform, this was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine. n nThe weakness of the Belarusian economy at the beginning of the year is becoming systemic and cannot be reduced to individual problems in certain sectors. n nAccording to experts from the Belarusian Economy Monitoring project, the country is entering a period when even the absence of new shocks will mean stagnation, and any deterioration in external conditions will mean a rapid decline. n n“Formally, Belarus ended last year with GDP growth of 1.3%, but this figure masks a sharp decline in economic momentum,” the Foreign Intelligence Service noted. n nThroughout the year, growth rates declined steadily: from 0.8% in the third quarter to 0.4% in the fourth. As a result, in the first quarter of 2026, GDP is forecast to only repeat the level of a year ago due to weak demand in the Russian market. n nThe main blow falls on industry, which has turned from a source of support into a source of pressure on the entire economy. n nAt the end of the year, industrial production fell by 1.8%. Even the growth in sales of potash fertilizers and Russian oil supplies to Belarusian refineries could not compensate for the collapse of key enterprises, in particular the Minsk Tractor Plant and the Belarusian Metallurgical Plant. In the first quarter, the decline in industry may deepen to 3–5%. n nRead also: Court arrests Belarusian spy who previously worked as journalist in Kyiv n nCounting on external support is also not working. The Russian economy, on which Belarusian exports critically depend, shows no signs of recovery, and the forecasts for it remain even more pessimistic. Domestic demand is unable to compensate for this collapse: in 2025, its growth rate fell by half, from 12% to 6%. n nMonetary policy creates additional risks. The National Bank’s focus on stimulating economic activity increases the likelihood of monetary easing as early as the first quarter, which directly threatens inflationary destabilization. Core inflation exceeded 7% at the end of the year, and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming months. n n“Taken together, these factors form a scenario in which negative developments for the Belarusian economy are not a risk but a baseline forecast,” the FISU noted.