Nevada’s economy is projected to experience a period of slower expansion, though a recession is not anticipated in the near future, according to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) 2025 Economic Outlook. The forecast, presented during the center’s 50th-anniversary event at the Durango Casino & Resort, highlights challenges including rising housing costs and the need for economic diversification. National economic trends are influencing the state’s trajectory, with inflation around 3% and shifting consumer behavior posing risks. Despite these headwinds, employment is expected to grow modestly, particularly in healthcare, transportation, real estate, and professional services. Leisure and hospitality sectors will see steady but reduced gains. Visitor volume in the state may decline by 0.4% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, stabilizing around 50 to 51 million annually. In Southern Nevada, economic activity may slightly contract in late 2025 before a 2.4% increase in visitors in 2026, followed by a 0.2% dip in 2027. Employment growth in the region is forecast at 0.7%, 1.3%, and 0.1% over the next three years. Housing permits are expected to drop by 3% in 2025 before rising 4.8% in 2026, with home prices cooling slightly—though new construction remains strong. CBER director Andrew Woods emphasized the importance of investing in workforce development, innovation, and infrastructure to sustain growth beyond tourism. He noted that while challenges persist, major events like the Super Bowl and F1 Grand Prix in Las Vegas signal long-term potential. Nationally, the U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, supported by easing inflation and federal fiscal stimulus.
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CBER Report: Slow Economic Growth, But No Recession in Sight
As Nevada’s economy faces slower growth, rising housing costs, and the challenge of economic diversification, UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) shared insight beyond the numbers and a forecast for the coming years during its 2025 Economic Outlook. n nThe annual event, which this year marked CBER’s 50th anniversary, was held Nov. 13 at the Durango Casino & Resort and delivered detailed assessments of the local, state, and national economic picture. In addition to the forecast, the event included a panel discussion with CBER and regional economic experts and a keynote discussion on Las Vegas and the global sports economy. n n“For 50 years, CBER has bridged applied economic research with real-world impact,” said Andrew Woods, the center’s director. “Our mission remains the same: to help Nevada’s leaders in business, government, and the community at large make data-driven decisions that are grounded in unbiased economic research.” n nCBER Nevada Forecast: Slow Growth But No Recession Ahead n nCBER’s forecast for the Nevada economy shows a slowing path, since the national economy plays an outside role on the state and local outlook. A major risk to the state economy, forecasters say, is how U.S. consumers will react to domestic and international uncertainties and continued pressure on prices. With an inflation rate hovering around 3%, forecasters do not expect Nevada will see a recession in its near-term future, although recession chances could grow. n nAs the Fed navigates pandemic-era inflation and uncertainty associated with tariff policies, forecasters anticipate slower national economic activity over the next two years. This is in part because key economic metrics such as visitor volume, gross gaming revenue, and employment respond to the business cycle. n nStatewide visitor volume is predicted to decrease by 0.4% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2026 and 2027 with total visitors hovering around 50-51 million. n nEmployment growth should remain positive, albeit weaker than it has been, over the next decade. Some strength in hiring will continue in healthcare, transportation, real estate, and professional, scientific, and technical services. Gains in leisure and hospitality are expected to be slower but steady. n nThe statewide housing market is expected to stagnate, as total housing permits are expected to be down roughly 3% in 2025 before growing by 4.8% in 2026. Overall home prices are expected to cool slightly, though not as much for new homes. n nOverall, CBER expects that some retrenchment of statewide economic activity, with resulting slower but positive growth, is expected through 2027 absent any large negative economic shocks from within or outside the state. Growth in both population and personal income are expected through 2027. n n“The Nevada economy and its tourism sector will continue to hit some bumps in the road over the next two years, but we believe it will smooth over as businesses and consumers work through the current economic uncertainty,” Woods said. n nWoods also highlighted the state’s momentum in emerging sectors such as healthcare, professional services, logistics, and information technology. n n“Economic growth will continue, but to sustain it, we must invest in long-term planning that supports workforce development, innovation, and infrastructure that supports sectors beyond just leisure and hospitality,” he said. n nHousing affordability also remains a central challenge in Nevada, as prices have stabilized but incomes have not kept pace — creating “two markets” for higher-income earners and working families. n nDuring a panel discussion, UNLV Lied Center for Real Estate director Shawn McCoy noted that housing affordability is directly linked to workforce stability and the region’s ability to remain competitive. n n“Housing affects where people choose to live and work,” McCoy said. “To attract and retain talent, we have to make sure the region remains livable for working families.” n nSouthern Nevada: Mild Contraction in Economic Activity Expected n nLocally, CBER anticipates a mild contraction in economic activity in Southern Nevada for the rest of 2025 and over the next two years. n nForecasters predict a slight increase (2.4%) in visitor volume for 2026 from 2025, followed by a mild decrease (0.2%) in 2027, with annual visitors hovering around 40 million over the next two years. Southern Nevada employment is expected to continue its positive, but weak, growth with slight upticks of 0.7%, 1.3%, and 0.1% over the next three years. n nComing out of the pandemic-era recession, forecasters argue that Southern Nevada faced more difficulties than most metro areas due in part to its reliance on economic sectors requiring face-to-face interactions. Even today, the local economy remains highly specialized in leisure and hospitality. While this sector recovered rapidly after the economy opened up, employment levels are now only slightly higher than those prior to the pandemic. n nMoving forward, CBER points to the need for economic diversification and shared some bright spots, including recent significant investments in manufacturing, infrastructure, information technology, healthcare, and supply chains. And while there’s risk associated with the region’s core sector of leisure and hospitality, forecasters see some reason for optimism, including records set by both the Super Bowl and F1 Grand Prix events in Las Vegas and the so far steady pace of business travel. n n“With further professional sporting events coming to Las Vegas and new gambling facilities under construction, more upside than downside exists over the long term,” Woods noted in the report. n nNational Economy: Slower Growth, “Soft Landing” for Economic Uncertainty n nNationally, the economy continues to show resilience, with inflation and interest rates expected to ease while consumer spending and productivity gains support continued growth. n nThe U.S. economy is expected to grow 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, fourth quarter over fourth quarter, reflecting moderation in consumer spending. n nForecasters anticipate continued pressures on prices and affordability of goods and other items across the board, influenced by consumer uncertainty, tariffs, and personal debt. But the expected lowering of interest rates over the next year, coupled with stimulative effects from the recently passed federal fiscal package, could in the near term counteract some of the economic slowdown. n n“The level of uncertainty in the national economy – and how businesses and consumers will make decisions based on that uncertainty – complicates projections, but at this point we don’t project a recession in the near term as some of this may smooth out given time,” said Woods. n nCBER Economic Research and Forecasts