Can the future of society be predicted? In this article, I explore a topic that may seem unrelated to finance, yet there is clear evidence that economic variables behave predictably, as seen in economic cycles. George Orwell’s novel “1984” serves as an example, illustrating how a state can become totalitarian through the misuse of force and communication tools, manipulating or reinventing reality at will.
The question arises: can society’s future be predicted? Some writers have considered this. Isaac Asimov introduced “psychohistory,” a fictional science from his Foundation series, combining history, psychology, and mathematical statistics to predict the behavior of large populations. This concept was inspired by the kinetic theory of gases, predicting average behavior without knowing individual actions. Thinkers like Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee, and Pitirim Sorokin also explored societal patterns.
Spengler proposed a cyclical view of history in his 1918 book, “The Decline of the West,” identifying eight world cultures and their developmental stages. Toynbee, influenced by Spengler, argued that challenges shape civilizations, while Sorokin categorized civilizations into spiritual, material, and balanced phases.
More recently, Peter Turchin, an ecologist turned historian, warned of growing political instability in the U.S., driven by factors like inequality and elite overproduction. His predictions, published in Nature in 2010, resonate today amid rising polarization and institutional distrust.
While psychohistory remains fictional, it inspires real-world scientists and thinkers. Economist Paul Krugman noted that Asimov’s series motivated him to pursue economics, the closest field to psychohistory. Advances in data analysis bring us closer to predicting social trends, though human complexity limits precision.
Financial indicators on June 12, 2025, showed minimal changes. The Mexican peso appreciated slightly against the dollar, closing at 18.9210 pesos per dollar. Mexico’s oil export mix fell by $0.09, trading at $63.16 per barrel. Stock markets in Mexico and the U.S. reported marginal gains, with the S&P/BMV IPC rising 0.11% and the Nasdaq up 0.24%.
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