An alarming assessment from French economist Nicolas Baverez paints a troubling picture of France’s economic trajectory, suggesting structural weaknesses could demote the nation from its status among Europe’s leading powers before the decade ends. In a recent article published by Le Figaro, Baverez introduces the controversial term “tertiarization” – referring to a descent into third-world economic conditions – to describe the deepening erosion within France’s economy and society, likening it to the economic instability seen in Argentina. n nAccording to Baverez, France now ranks 34th globally in wealth per capita, falling below 7% of the European average for the third consecutive year. The country lags 25% behind Denmark, 20% behind Sweden, and even 15% behind its own previous benchmarks. This decline in real wealth coincides with a surge in financial obligations: public debt has surpassed 3.4 trillion euros, equivalent to approximately 117.4% of GDP. n nOne of the most striking figures highlighted is the national financial burden per citizen – roughly 231,000 euros for each of France’s 69 million people, amounting to six years’ worth of average earnings. Baverez argues this is not a temporary setback but the outcome of a political model reliant on debt-fueled consumption unsupported by real productivity gains. n nThe report also emphasizes a shrinking labor contribution across French society. Despite rising life expectancy, annual working hours per individual have decreased compared to counterparts in Germany, Italy, and the United States. Compounding this issue, France’s education system has slipped from 13th to 26th globally in the PISA rankings since 2019, contributing to a 6% drop in productivity. n nBaverez criticizes the 2026 budget for imposing an additional 44 billion euros in taxes, which he claims suffocates major enterprises – described as the last bastions of economic strength – to fund unproductive public spending. This fiscal pressure, he warns, is driving the middle class toward proletarianization, transforming them into an overburdened, low-income workforce and fueling populist movements that thrive on economic discontent. n nOn the international stage, Baverez notes France’s diminishing influence within the European Union, citing growing alignment between Germany and Italy under Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni as evidence of Paris’s marginalization. He laments that France appears increasingly incapable of addressing 21st-century challenges, from artificial intelligence to environmental transformation and military rearmament, losing ground to global powers that now watch its potential exit from the top ten economies. n nHowever, Baverez insists this decline is not inevitable. He advocates for a transformative “shock therapy” approach: shifting from a consumption-driven economy to one centered on production and innovation, halting excessive borrowing and taxation, and restoring the cultural and institutional value of work and education as foundational pillars for reclaiming national sovereignty. n nUltimately, his analysis extends beyond economics, serving as a political wake-up call. France, he argues, must soon choose between the illusion of debt-financed comfort and the painful but necessary revival of its state capacity – or risk seeing “tertiarization” evolve from economic forecast to irreversible social reality. n— news from aljazeera.net n
— News Original —nEconomist: Will France Become a Third-World Country?n nIn a diagnosis that could be described as shocking for the future of one of the major powers in the old continent, economist Nicolas Baverez has painted a bleak picture of the path taken by the French Republic, warning of structural changes that could push Paris out of the league of great powers before the end of this decade. n nIn his latest article in Le Figaro, Baverez introduces a controversial term: “third-worldization” (Tiers-mondisation), to describe the state of erosion affecting the French economy and society, describing his country as the “Argentina of Europe”. n nThe author explains that France currently ranks 34th globally in terms of wealth, meaning it has fallen below 7% of the European average for the third consecutive year, declining by 25% compared to Denmark, 20% compared to Sweden, and 15% compared to France. n nBaverez relies on abstract figures to demonstrate the hypothesis of “accelerating poverty”: wealth per capita in France declined in 2024 to 7% below the European average, a decline that has continued for the third consecutive year. This contraction in real wealth is matched by an “explosion” in financial obligations, with public debt surpassing 3.4 trillion euros (about 117.4% of GDP). n nThe author points to a terrifying fact: every French citizen, among the 69 million, now carries national financial obligations amounting to 231,000 euros, equivalent to six full years of work income. n nBaverez believes this reality is not just a passing flaw, but the result of a “demagogic” political model relying on “growth through debt” to finance consumption not supported by real productivity. n nShrinking Middle Class n nThe report highlights the dilemma of “declining work” in French society. While life expectancy increases, annual working hours per French individual are shrinking compared to peers in Germany, Italy, and the United States. n nThis imbalance is accompanied by a sharp deterioration in the education system, which has declined from 13th to 26th globally according to the PISA rankings, leading to a 6% drop in productivity since 2019. n nIn a critical tone toward the current economic approach in France, Baverez says the country “practices a form of deliberate harm to production, as the 2026 budget imposes additional taxes worth 44 billion euros, suffocating the large corporations that represent our last economic strongholds, to fund unproductive spending”. n nBaverez: The French government practices a form of deliberate harm to production, imposing additional taxes worth 44 billion euros in the 2026 budget, suffocating the large corporations that represent our last economic strongholds, to fund unproductive spending. n nThis tax and financial pressure has led, according to the article, to the “proletarianization” of the middle class, turning it into a poor, hardworking class, explaining the rise of populist currents feeding on the anger of the economically marginalized. n nGeopolitical Isolation n nOn the international level, Baverez believes France is losing its appeal and credibility as a driving force within the European Union, pointing to the “marginalization” Paris suffers amid the rise of new blocs, such as the German-Italian rapprochement between Friedrich Merz and Giorgia Meloni. n nBaverez adds bitterly: “Our country is no longer able to respond to 21st-century challenges, from artificial intelligence to environmental transition or even rearmament; it is losing its shine before international powers that now await its fall from the list of the top ten economies.” n nChange or Collapse n nBaverez concludes his analysis of the French reality by emphasizing that this decline is not “an inevitable fate,” but the result of a “series of concessions and political mistakes.” n nHe proposes a kind of “shock therapy” based on: transitioning from a consumption economy to a production and innovation economy, halting the “headlong rush” through debt and excessive taxation, and restoring the value of work and education as the sole pillars for regaining sovereignty. n nThe fact is that the warning issued by Baverez goes beyond economics, encompassing a political alert for French society, which may find itself, according to Baverez, forced to choose between “illusory comfort financed by debt” and “painful awakening to restore the state’s standing,” before the term “third-worldization” turns from economic prophecy into irreversible social reality.