Geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most significant global risk in 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks Report. The survey, which gathered insights from over 1,300 experts between August 12 and September 22, 2025, found that 18% of respondents viewed this issue as the most likely to trigger a major worldwide crisis. This marks a two-position rise from the previous year, driven by ongoing tensions in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as emerging friction involving Greenland and Venezuela.
State-based armed conflict ranked second, selected by 14% of participants. With 59 active conflicts globally—the highest number since World War II—military confrontations continue to threaten international stability. In parallel, extreme weather events were cited by 8% of respondents as a leading threat. Increasing temperatures are fueling more frequent and intense wildfires, droughts, and storms, contributing to rising food prices, population displacement, and higher insurance claims.
Other notable concerns include societal polarization and the spread of misinformation, each flagged by 7% of experts. Economic downturn and erosion of civil liberties followed, with 5% and 4% of respondents respectively highlighting them as critical risks. Technological threats, particularly unintended consequences of artificial intelligence, also emerged as a growing worry, mentioned by 4% of those surveyed.
Cybersecurity vulnerabilities, inequality, and disruptions to supply chains or critical infrastructure were each identified by smaller shares of respondents, ranging from 1% to 3%. Meanwhile, issues like biodiversity loss, public health decline, and resource scarcity remain on the radar, though perceived as less immediate.
The findings underscore how interconnected global systems are becoming, with shifts in technology, climate, and geopolitical power structures amplifying uncertainty. These dynamics not only challenge national security and economic competitiveness but also place pressure on labor markets and social cohesion.
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Who’s Powering Global Economic Growth in 2026?
Ranked: The Biggest Risks Facing the World in 2026 n nSee visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources. n nKey Takeaways n nGeoeconomic confrontation is the top global risk in 2026, according to the World Economic Forum’s annual report. n nFraying transatlantic alliances and a Great-Power competition between the U.S. and China is increasingly undermining global stability. n nFrom rapid advances in AI to shifts in the postwar economic order, multiple forces are reshaping the global system. n nAs these shifts accelerate, they introduce growing risks. Not only do they raise questions for national competitiveness and security, they stand to disproportionately hit labor markets. n nThis graphic shows the world’s leading risks in 2026, based on data from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026. n nA Closer Look at the Top Global Risks n nFor the analysis, the World Economic Forum surveyed more than 1,300 experts on the most pressing global risks in 2026. n nHere, respondents were asked to answer the following question, “Please select one risk that you believe is most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2026.” Surveys were conducted between August 12 and September 22, 2025: n nRiskPercentage Selecting as Top Risk Geoeconomic confrontation18% State-based armed conflict14% Extreme weather events8% Societal polarization7% Misinformation and disinformation7% Economic downturn5% Erosion of human rights and/or of civic freedoms4% Adverse outcomes of AI technologies4% Cyber insecurity3% Inequality3% Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment2% Concentration of strategic resources and technologies2% Critical change to Earth systems2% Natural resource shortages2% Disruptions to critical infrastructure2% Asset bubble burst2% Debt2% Disruptions to a systemically important supply chain1% Decline in health and well-being1% Involuntary migration or displacement1% Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse1% Biological, chemical or nuclear weapons or hazards1% Inflation1% Pollution1% Insufficient public infrastructure and social protections1% Infectious diseases1% Non-weather related natural disasters1% Censorship and surveillance1% Crime and illicit economic activity1% n nGeoeconomic confrontation ranks as the top global risk in 2026, selected by 18% of respondents. n nSince last year, it has jumped up two spots in the rankings given persisting tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. More recently, U.S. pressure over Greenland, along with the capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, have added further strain. n nAt the same time, President Trump’s perceived indifference toward defending Taiwan could create a perfect storm, according to experts, for China’s push for “reunification.” n nState-based armed conflict ranks second in the WEF report, selected by 14% of respondents. Notably, there are 59 active state-based conflicts worldwide, the highest number since World War II. n nRounding out the top three risks are extreme weather events, selected by 8% respondents overall. From wildfires to droughts, severe weather events are meaningfully contributing to food inflation, displacement, and higher insurance costs. As global temperatures continue to rise, these impacts could intensify in both frequency and severity. n nLearn More on the Voronoi App n nTo learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top 10 global risks from 2020 to 2025. n nRanked: Which Countries Hold the Most U.S. Debt? n nSee visuals like this from many other data creators on our Voronoi app. Download it for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources. n nKey Takeaways n nForeign holdings of U.S. Treasuries hit an all-time high of $9.4 trillion in November, despite notable selloffs from China and India. n nJapan’s holdings of U.S. debt increased 11% annually to reach $1.2 trillion, while Canada’s purchases climbed 27% over the period, with the total now at $472 billion. n nEach year, the U.S. needs to sell more Treasuries to finance its growing budget deficit. n nBoth domestic and overseas investors buy this debt, with foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries owning a record $9.4 trillion of the total. Overall, European countries collectively hold close to 40% of foreign-owned U.S. debt. n nThis graphic shows which countries hold U.S. debt, based on U.S. Treasury data. n nThe Top 20 Foreign Holders of U.S. Treasuries in 2025 n nBelow, we show the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries as of November 2025: n nRankCountryValue n nNov 2025 (B)Annual Change 1\u00a0Japan$1,202.611% 2\u00a0United Kingdom$888.516% 3\u00a0China$682.6-11% 4\u00a0Belgium$481.033% 5\u00a0Canada$472.227% 6\u00a0Cayman Islands$427.45% 7\u00a0Luxembourg$425.62% 8\u00a0France$376.113% 9\u00a0Ireland$340.3-1% 10\u00a0Taiwan$312.59% 11\u00a0Switzerland$300.31% 12\u00a0Singapore$272.28% 13\u00a0Hong Kong$256.0-4% 14\u00a0Norway$218.935% 15\u00a0India$186.5-20% 16\u00a0Brazil$168.1-27% 17\u00a0Saudi Arabia$148.810% 18\u00a0South Korea$145.114% 19\u00a0Germany$109.810% 20\u00a0Israel$107.723% –\u00a0Other countries$1,833.2N/A n n–\u00a0Global Total$9,355.47% n nWith $1.2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. n nIn 2019, Japan overtook China, marking a major shift from a decade earlier, when China held nearly $1.3 trillion. Since then, China’s Treasury holdings have been nearly cut in half, while Japan’s have risen more modestly, up $61 billion over the same period. n nThe UK ranks next, with $888.5 billion in U.S. federal debt. In the past 12 months, these debt holdings increased by the double-digits, a pattern echoed across several European nations, including Belgium, France, and Norway. n nBy contrast, BRICS countries saw significant selloffs. Brazil’s holdings fell 27%, outpacing India’s 20% decline and China’s 11% reduction. At the same time, gold’s share of global central bank reserves surpassed U.S. Treasuries in late 2025 for the first time since 1996. n nWhile U.S. Treasury demand is shaped by many complex factors, 2025 underscored a clear divergence. Traditional U.S. allies continued to build their positions, while others increasingly diversified away, likely reflecting growing geopolitical considerations. n nLearn More on the Voronoi App n nTo learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the world’s $111 trillion in government debt.