Recent labor data paints a concerning picture for the U.S. job market, with layoffs surging and hiring activity slowing. According to Challenger, Gray and Christmas, employers announced plans to eliminate over 108,000 positions last month—more than double the number reported in January 2025. Meanwhile, ADP’s private sector employment report showed only 22,000 new jobs added in January, signaling weak momentum in payroll expansion. Initial jobless claims also climbed sharply, adding to the evidence of a cooling labor landscape. RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas noted that while companies are achieving higher productivity with fewer workers, this efficiency comes at a social cost, particularly for households facing economic uncertainty. Public sentiment reflects this tension: a recent Economist/YouGov poll shows President Trump trailing by 14 points on his handling of jobs and the economy. Similarly, a New York Fed survey revealed declining expectations for wage growth and job availability. Despite strong GDP estimates—Atlanta Fed’s model projects a 4.2 percent growth rate—consumer confidence remains low. The quits rate, an indicator of worker confidence in finding new roles, is still below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting caution among employees. Sectors such as professional services, retail, and finance saw notable declines in job openings. Economists at Wells Fargo warn that continued low hiring and minimal voluntary turnover could eventually trigger more layoffs, especially as firms turn to cost-cutting when other options are exhausted. The full employment report from the Labor Department, delayed due to a brief government shutdown, is expected next week.
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Job openings plummet in warning sign for Trump’s economy
The research firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported that companies announced plans to cut more than 108,000 positions last month, more than double the layoffs tallied in January 2025. The payroll processing firm ADP said private sector firms added just 22,000 jobs in January — a sign of tepid payroll growth. And jobless claims spiked last week. n n“On the margin, firms are able to do more with less,” said RSM US Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas. “That’s fine when you’re talking to an economist or capital markets professional; that’s hell if you’re talking to a politician or the public.” n nThat could spell trouble for Trump, whose approval ratings on the economy have already been battered by affordability, inflation and labor market anxieties that have hurt the GOP in recent elections and forced the president to refocus on cost-of-living issues. n nWhile official measurements of productivity and output have been strong, meaning companies are getting more out of the workers they have, polls and consumer confidence surveys have been consistently negative. n nA new poll from The Economist/YouGov found that Trump is 14 percentage points underwater on his handling of jobs and the economy, and a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that consumer expectations have deteriorated with regard to wage growth and finding new work. n nA White House spokesperson said Trump is working to “turn the page” on the “economic disaster” that President Joe Biden left. n n“The Trump administration is focused on implementing the same Trump agenda that unleashed historic job, wage, and economic growth during President Trump’s first term,” spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement. “Honest reporting would highlight the work this Administration is doing to keep real wages growing, trillions in investments pouring in, and GDP growth accelerating instead of fixating on unofficial data releases that have not historically tracked well with real BLS jobs data.” n nThe Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that the economy is growing at a solid 4.2 percent pace. n nStill, Labor’s report on job openings found substantial declines in the number of opportunities in professional and business services, retail trade, and finance and insurance. As more companies adopt artificial intelligence — which has been a major source of the economy’s expansion — some have cautioned that future growth could leave workers behind. n nThe Labor Department also found that the quits rate — which reflects workers’ willingness or ability to leave their job — remains below where it was prior to the pandemic, suggesting a lack of confidence about obtaining new employment. n nThat means the labor market could continue to weaken in the coming months. Labor will produce its monthly report on the unemployment rate and payrolls next week, delaying the release because of the brief government shutdown. n n“The low hiring environment and subdued rate of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs risks pushing layoffs higher,” according to Wells Fargo economists Sarah House, Michael Pugliese and Nicole Cervi. And while layoffs “have not risen to a degree that [signals] a mass loss in employment, the pickup is a reminder that firms are not opposed to cutting headcount when other options have been exhausted.”