Bitcoin has maintained momentum above the $120,000 psychological threshold, but upcoming U.S. economic developments may shape its near-term direction. Although the influence of traditional macroeconomic data on digital assets had waned in previous years, it reemerged in 2025 as a significant factor for market participants. This week, several key indicators could act as catalysts, either supporting further gains or triggering corrections.
The release of the September FOMC meeting minutes is among the most anticipated events. That meeting marked the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate reduction in nine months, adjusting the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00–4.25%. The minutes are expected to clarify the rationale behind the decision, reinforcing Chair Jerome Powell’s characterization of the cut as a move to manage economic risks. Any signals pointing to additional reductions could boost investor confidence and potentially push Bitcoin higher. Conversely, indications that rate cuts may pause before year-end might lead to short-term profit-taking.
Some analysts believe the impact may be limited since the minutes do not include updated economic forecasts. As one observer noted, “These are essentially a written summary of past discussions, so they may not significantly shift market dynamics.”
Another focal point is Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled remarks on October 9 in Rhode Island. His comments, coming shortly after the FOMC minutes, will be closely analyzed for hints about future monetary policy. Previous statements emphasized the Fed’s attention to financial conditions and their alignment with policy goals. Market participants will watch for dovish or hawkish tones that could influence sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Initial jobless claims data, released weekly, also holds relevance. This metric tracks the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. Economist Kurt S. Altrichter highlighted its predictive value: “A four-week average exceeding 300,000 has historically signaled rising recession risks, often preceding a contraction in the labor market.” The current level sits at 260,000, remaining within a stable range.
However, uncertainty looms due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which could delay or disrupt the release of critical economic reports. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $123,718, reflecting a 1.13% decline over the past 24 hours.
— news from BeInCrypto
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Three US Economic Events Impacting Bitcoin This Week
While Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strength, pushing well above the $120,000 psychological level, US economic events this week present as potential headwinds or prospective tailwinds to determine the next short-term directional bias.
While the influence of US economic data on Bitcoin and crypto had dissipated, it returned in 2025, making these signals critical for investors this week.
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US Economic Signals to Watch This Week
While many US economic events are on the calendar this week, only a few could have a direct or indirect influence on Bitcoin and crypto markets.
September FOMC Minutes
The minutes for the September FOMC meeting (Federal Open Market Committee) are perhaps the most critical US economic data point this week.
In hindsight, the meeting had featured a new Fed governor, Stephen Miran, which preceded the Fed’s first rate cut in 9 months, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%.
Therefore, the minutes of the Fed’s September FOMC meeting will shed more light on policymakers’ reasoning, adding more weight to Powell’s framing of the rate cut as a risk management decision.
Any indications of more rate cuts downrange would sway the market, potentially positively, with the Bitcoin price likely to extend its gains. In the same way, suggestions of no further rate cuts toward the end of the year could trigger a short-term sell-off.
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Nevertheless, some macroeconomists say the event may not move the market as much because it does not include economic projections.
“This week, fundamentally, we have the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, but these do not include economic projections, so they will not impact the markets too much. It is just the written report of what they discussed during the last meeting when we had a rate cut,” wrote xAlex.
Jerome Powell Opening Remarks
A host of Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers are scheduled to speak this week, forming the bulk of US economic events with crypto implications. However, the highlight will be Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday, whose opening remarks could influence the market.
Speaking in Rhode Island on September 23, Powell said policymakers look at overall financial conditions and ask themselves whether their policies affect financial conditions in a way they are trying to achieve.
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Powell’s remarks will come on Thursday, October 9, only hours after the FOMC minutes. Traders and investors will parse the speech for possible insight into policymakers’ thinking.
“Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech this week and FOMC minutes from September (when rates were cut to start easing) will be scrutinized for clues on the 2025 path: Nine officials eye two more cuts, but seven see none or hikes,” one user observed.
Dovish or hawkish remarks could sway investor sentiment, inspiring Bitcoin volatility depending on what he says.
However, it is worth noting that as the US government shutdown continues, there is considerable uncertainty about whether the economic data will be accurately released.
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Initial Jobless Claims
The initial jobless claims, due every Thursday, are also critical this week, especially given the labor market’s growing weight as a Bitcoin macro.
This data point determines the number of US citizens who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time last week.
“Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy. First alert: 260k, Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average. Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks,” economist Kurt S. Altrichter stated.
However, the US government shutdown leaves a lot on the balance, with key US economic events likely to go undated this week.
As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $123,718, down by 1.13% in the last 24 hours.