A measure of future U.S. economic activity has triggered a recession signal after declining for the sixth consecutive month in May. The drop was driven by consumer pessimism, weak new manufacturing orders, rising unemployment claims, and a decline in building permits.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month, following a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, the largest decline since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. While a rebound in stock prices provided some positive contribution, it was offset by other negative factors.
The Conference Board noted that the negative six-month growth rate of the LEI has worsened, triggering the recession signal. However, they do not currently forecast a recession but anticipate a significant economic slowdown in 2025, with real GDP growth projected at 1.6%. Persistent tariff effects could further slow growth in 2026.
— news from TradingView
— News Original —
Indicadores adelantados EEUU caen en mayo, genera señal de recesión: Conference Board
Una medida de la actividad económica futura de Estados Unidos activó una señal de recesión al caer en mayo por sexto mes consecutivo, frenada por el pesimismo de los consumidores, la debilidad de los nuevos pedidos de productos manufacturados, un repunte de las solicitudes de ayuda por desempleo y una baja en las solicitudes de permisos de construcción…