Madera County is set to maintain its momentum into 2026, despite broader economic challenges such as inflation and rising interest rates. The region continues to attract investment in healthcare, housing, and commercial development, supporting job creation and population expansion. A key milestone includes the reopening of Madera Community Hospital in early 2025, reinforcing local healthcare infrastructure.
Additional major developments underway include the North Fork Mono Casino & Resort, expected to open in summer 2026 and generate approximately 1,000 new positions. This project, along with others like Gunner Ranch West and The Villages at Almond Grove, reflects a robust pipeline of mixed-use and residential construction. The latter development alone plans for nearly 10,800 homes and over 2.1 million square feet of commercial space within the city of Madera.
Industrial real estate remains tight, with vacancy at just 0.8%, significantly below historical averages. Only 140,000 square feet of space is currently available, and new construction is struggling to keep pace with demand. On the retail side, vacancy stands at 5.7%, slightly above normal levels, though officials anticipate improvement as housing growth drives consumer activity.
New residential communities such as Rancho Calera, Orchard View, and The Preserve at Millerton Lake are advancing through various stages of development. The Tozer III Pecan-Tozer Residential Project by Crown Homes will introduce 168 single-family units across nearly 29 acres. Meanwhile, infrastructure work continues on The Villages at Almond Grove, signaling long-term commitment to urban expansion.
Retail expansion is also on the horizon. Raley’s O-N-E Market is slated to open in spring 2027 as part of a 61,000-square-foot addition to Riverstone’s Riverwalk development. Additionally, Himat Investment has secured entitlements for a new convenience store, gas station with 12 fuel points, and drive-thru car wash on a 2.5-acre site at Olive and Tozer streets.
Small business interest is rising, with renewed activity in the city’s loan program administered by the Madera Economic Development Commission (EDC). One application was recently approved—the first since 2022—indicating renewed access to capital.
Tourism outlook remains favorable, according to Rhonda Salisbury, CEO of the Yosemite Sierra Visitors Bureau. While reservation policies at Yosemite National Park affected visitation in prior years, expectations for 2026 are optimistic, with announcements anticipated soon to allow travelers to plan ahead. International visitors continue to arrive, supporting regional travel economies.
Kristina Gallagher, executive director of the Madera EDC, emphasized that while no forecast is certain, current trends point to sustained population growth, job expansion, and a strengthening labor market—particularly in healthcare and construction sectors.
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Madera County Economic Forecast: Gaming, housing, retail in the pipeline
With the reborn Madera Community Hospital in January 2025, Madera County has much to be thankful for. Other large projects in the pipeline include Gunner Ranch, “Village D” and North Fork Mono Casino & Resort. Adobe Stock Image n nEditor’s note: The Business Journal published its 2026 Regional Economic Forecast issue on Nov. 28. This is one of those stories. n nMadera County is poised to continue its growth into 2026 despite economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, expanding opportunities for commercial activity, housing, education, entertainment, business and employment opportunities. n nDespite state and national pressures on the region, Madera County saw the completion of major projects to bolster the area’s economy, including the renovation and reopening of Madera Community Hospital in March. Chowchilla saw the opening of the AutoZone Distribution Center, and a continued buildout of its residential master-planned communities. n nThe North Fork Mono Casino and Resort is currently under construction and expected to open by summer 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs. n nWith more homes going up to support current Central Valley families, and outsiders looking to move in, the Madera County has ranked as the California’s No 1 fastest-growing county from 2024-2025, according to the California Department of Finance. n nHome grown n nKristina Gallagher, executive director of the Madera Economic Development Commission (EDC), said they are focused on attracting new investment and keeping the county as a place where economic opportunity aligns with quality of life. n nGallagher said that there is no “crystal ball” for an economic forecast, but based on past reports and current activity, the outlook is strong. n n“Overall, we are probably going to continue to see population growth and that’s thanks to all the new housing and ongoing development. I think that by 2025 Madera County is expected to stay in that steady growth mode, and we are going to continue to see job expansion and a stronger labor market — specifically in health care,” Gallagher said. n nMadera County’s industrial market remains strong and highly competitive with a 0.8% vacancy rate, well below the five-year 3.1% and 10-year 2.1% averages, according to the Madera EDC Annual Report. n nOnly 140,000 square feet available, with 56,000 square feet underway versus the 10-year average of 150,000. n nNew construction is limited and there is a high demand. n nFuture homes, retail n nOn the retail side, Gallagher said there is a 5.7% vacancy rate, which is slightly higher than historical norms, but the EDC is working with a range of companies that are exploring moving into the area and expanding their operations in the county and the city of Madera. n nBut she noted that as the housing supply grows, so will retail. n nWhile Riverstone and Tesoro Viejo are still building out their communities, there are several others in the design and planning stages. n nThe Preserve at Millerton Lake has pulled 22 single-family dwelling units between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. n nGunner Ranch West is a fully entitled-mixed-used proposed development located adjacent to Valley Children’s hospital campus, with plans including residential neighborhoods, parks, open space, trails and community facilities. n nThe Villages at Almond Grove is in the planning design phase with infrastructure work underway. Located in the City of Madera, it will include nearly 10,800 homes, 2.1 million square feet of commercial space, parks and school sites. n nThe Tozer III Pecan-Tozer Residential Project is a new single-family home community by Crown Homes that is currently in preconstruction. n nLocated on the east side of Tozer Street between Avenue 13 ½ and East Pecan Avenue, the subdivision will feature 168 homes across approximately 29 acres. n nRancho Calera, a 561-acre mixed-use community east of Highway 99 in Chowchilla, is planned for up to 2,042 homes, parks, schools, commercial space and trails. Phase one, with 140 lots, is underway and development remains active. n nCentury Communities is in the process of building Orchard View, a multi-phase development of approximately 203 homes within the city limits of Chowchilla. n nComing soon n nRaley’s O-N-E Market has been announced to be a part of the 61,000 square foot expansion of retail space at Riverstone’s Riverwalk development on Avenue 12 and Highway 41. Construction is set to being early next year, with a grand opening planned for the Spring of 2027. n nHimat Investment, based in Madera, is pushing forward with a new commercial development at the southwest corner of Olive and Tozer streets, with entitlements approved and permits under review. The 2.5 acre site will include a convenience store, gas station with 12 fueling stations and a drive-thru car wash. n nGallagher said that small businesses will also continue to look to the county, and there are a lot of calls from business owners for an EDC-administered small business loan program through the City of Madera. n nThere are many applications for small businesses being submitted, with one recently being approved, which hasn’t happened since 2022, Gallagher said. n nHappy trails n nThe travel and tourism outlook for Madera County is looking positive, said Rhonda Salisbury CEO at Yosemite Sierra Visitors Bureau. n nSalisbury said that international visitors continue to travel to the area. n nIn 2025, reservations for Yosemite National Park were announced late and many people made other plans, Salisbury said. n nShe predicts that the National Park Service will announce the plans for next year within the next few weeks to allow travelers to make plans ahead of time. n nYosemite National Park’s reservation systems did dampen visitor numbers in the last few years, but not as much in 2025, Salisbury said. n n“Next year we do not know what is going to happen, but we think the park’s reservation system impact will be minimal,” Salisbury said.