Cotton benchmarks remained range-bound over the past month, according to the latest USDA forecasts for 2025/26. Global production is expected to decrease slightly by 800,000 bales, while global consumption is projected to decline by 300,000 bales. World beginning stocks were reduced by 1.2 million bales, resulting in a 1.6 million bale reduction in global ending stocks.
Notable changes in production projections include decreases for India and the U.S., while China’s production is expected to rise. In terms of mill use, India and Turkey saw reductions, whereas Egypt’s figures increased. Global trade estimates for 2025/26 remained steady at 44.8 million bales, with significant changes in import and export forecasts for countries like China, Turkey, and Brazil.
The price outlook remains uncertain amid ongoing U.S. trade policy developments, including court rulings questioning tariff announcements. Bilateral negotiations continue, with potential implications for global macroeconomic conditions and supply chain demand. Updated World Bank figures suggest slower global economic growth, impacting consumer spending and tariff-related decisions.
Despite higher tariffs, U.S. apparel imports in April showed an increase in volume, indicating retailers may have expedited orders. The evolving production situation, particularly in China, and weather conditions in the U.S. will play crucial roles in future market dynamics.
— new from Sourcing Journal
