Throughout most of history, the safest assumption has been that conditions will remain largely unchanged. However, there are moments when the future appears entirely transformed. Leaders in Silicon Valley argue that humanity is approaching such a turning point, as artificial intelligence (AI) could surpass the average human in every cognitive task within a few years. Even if this scenario seems unlikely, it warrants serious consideration. If realized, the implications would be as significant as any developments in global economic history.
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FOR MOST of history the safest prediction has been that things will continue much as they are. But sometimes the future is unrecognisable. The tech bosses of Silicon Valley say humanity is approaching such a moment, because in just a few years artificial intelligence (AI) will be better than the average human being at all cognitive tasks. You do not need to put high odds on them being right to see that their claim needs thinking through. Were it to come true, the consequences would be as great as anything in the history of the world economy.
— news from The Economist