WASHINGTON, D.C. — In November, American consumers voiced growing unease about the nation’s economic outlook and job market, coinciding with the final phase of the longest federal government shutdown in history, heightened stock market fluctuations, and uncertainty over labor trends. This rising concern was mirrored in a sharp decline in anticipated holiday spending compared to earlier projections. n nGallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) dropped seven points to -30, marking its weakest performance in 17 months and the lowest since July 2024 when it stood at -35. The index, which evaluates public sentiment on current economic conditions and perceptions of economic direction, showed deterioration in both dimensions. Only 21% of U.S. adults rated the economy as excellent or good, down from 24% in October and the smallest share since March. Meanwhile, 40% described conditions as poor, up from 37% the previous month. n nOn the question of economic momentum, just 27% believed the economy was improving—a four-point decline from October and the weakest reading since mid-2024. In contrast, 68% felt conditions were deteriorating. The ECI operates on a scale from +100 to -100, with historical extremes including a peak of +56 in January 2000 and a trough of -72 in October 2008. More recently, the index reached +41 in February 2020 and -58 in June 2022. After a gradual recovery from inflation-driven lows, it stood at -26 in October 2024, improved to -14 by December following Donald Trump’s re-election, and fluctuated between -14 and -22 through most of 2025 before falling to -23 in October and -30 in November. n nSentiment about employment opportunities also weakened. Only 33% of respondents believed it was a favorable time to secure a quality job, an eight-point drop from August and the most pessimistic assessment since January 2021 during the pandemic. Conversely, 63% viewed the job market negatively. The poll, conducted between November 3 and 25, captured two-thirds of responses before the shutdown ended on November 12 and before the delayed September jobs report was released on November 20. That data revealed stronger-than-expected hiring but a rise in unemployment to 4.4%. n nHoliday spending intentions saw a dramatic contraction. Americans now expect to spend an average of $778 on gifts, a reduction of $229 from October’s $1,007 and well below last year’s November estimate of $1,012. While consumers typically scale back holiday budgets as the season progresses—doing so by over $40 in 11 of the past 19 years—this year’s $229 drop surpasses even the $185 decline recorded during the 2008 financial crisis. n nHigh-income households (earning $100,000 or more) plan to spend $1,230, down from $1,479 in October and $1,578 in November 2024. Low-income households (under $50,000) cut their forecast to $384, from $651 in October and $607 a year ago. Middle-income earners project $842, nearly unchanged from October’s $847 and last year’s $839. n nDespite this steep pullback in dollar terms, only 29% of Americans say they intend to spend less than in 2024—up from 23% in October but far below the 46% who said so in November 2008. Just 14% expect to spend more, down from 19% previously, while 53% anticipate spending about the same. This suggests that while financial caution is evident, it may not reflect deep pessimism. n nThe prolonged government shutdown likely contributed to the souring mood, disrupting federal payrolls and benefit programs. Although the crisis has passed, consumer sentiment remains fragile. The $778 average spending figure marks the largest year-over-year decline Gallup has ever recorded, exceeding even the downturn seen during the 2008 retail slump. However, the relatively low share of people explicitly planning to cut spending may offer retailers some hope for resilience. With political shifts influencing economic perceptions—Trump’s approval ratings have struggled since June—the 2025 holiday season may avoid a full-blown collapse, though challenges remain. n
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Economic Confidence Slips; Holiday Spending Plans Plummet
WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. consumers expressed increased concern about the economy and jobs in November during a period that encompassed the final stretch of the nation’s longest federal government shutdown, significant stock market volatility and uncertainty about the nation’s labor market. Consumers also reported a sharply lower holiday spending estimate than they had forecast in October. n nEconomic Confidence Drops to 17-Month Low n nGallup’s Economic Confidence Index (ECI) fell seven points to -30 in November, the lowest since a -35 reading in July 2024. The decline reflects slightly worsening views on both components of the index: Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse. n nTwenty-one percent of U.S. adults in November, down slightly from 24% in October and the lowest percentage since March, described current economic conditions as excellent or good. By contrast, 40% now rate current conditions as poor, compared with 37% in October. n nFewer than three in 10 adults in the latest poll, 27%, said the economy is getting better, four percentage points below the October reading and the lowest since July 2024. About two-thirds (68%) said the economy is getting worse. n nThe ECI has a theoretical range of +100 to -100. The all-time high in Gallup’s trend since 1992 is +56, recorded in January 2000, and the lowest is -72, in October 2008. More recently — within the past five years — the high point was +41 in February 2020, and the low was -58 in June 2022. n nAfter two years of gradual improvement from that inflation-fueled slump, the index stood at -26 in October 2024. It then increased to -14 in December, mainly driven by Republicans’ newfound optimism about the economy after President Donald Trump was elected to a second term, and was -19 when former President Joe Biden left office in January. Since then, the index ranged from -14 to -22 throughout most of 2025 before dipping to -23 in October and to -30 last month. n n###Embeddable### n nConfidence in Labor Market Also Erodes n nAmericans’ views on the labor market also worsened in November, with 33% saying it is a good time to find a quality job and 63% calling it a bad time. Optimism about jobs is down eight points from the prior measure in August and is the most negative Gallup has recorded since the closing days of Trump’s first term, in January 2021 during the pandemic. n n###Embeddable### n nThe latest poll was conducted Nov. 3-25, with about two-thirds of the interviews conducted before the federal government shutdown ended on Nov. 12. Most of the interviews were also conducted before the release of the delayed September jobs report on Nov. 20, which showed stronger-than-expected employment growth in the U.S. but also a slight rise in the unemployment rate, to 4.4% n nHoliday Gift Budgets Contract by Record Amount n nAlong with their heightened economic anxiety in November, consumers expressed much less of an appetite for holiday gift spending compared with earlier in the season. Americans now estimate they will spend an average $778 on Christmas or other holiday gifts, down $229 from October’s $1,007. The figure is also significantly below last year’s November estimate of $1,012. n nConsumers often trim their holiday spending plans as the season progresses, including by more than $40 in 11 of the 19 years since 2006 for which Gallup has both October and November readings. It has only increased by at least $40 in four. However, this year’s midseason decline is the largest Gallup has recorded, surpassing the $185 drop seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. n n###Embeddable### n nBoth high- and low-income Americans have pulled back considerably in their intended spending on gifts since October, while middle-income earners’ estimate is about the same. n nAmericans in households earning $100,000 or more now predict spending $1,230 on holiday gifts, down from $1,479 in October and $1,578 in November 2024. n nThose in households earning less than $50,000 have cut their projected spending to $384, down from $651 in October and $607 last November. n nMiddle-income earners currently predict spending an average of $842, similar to their October estimate of $847 and last year’s $839. n nConsumers Still Reluctant to Say They Will ‘Spend Less’ n nAt the same time, a question asking Americans how the amount they plan to spend on gifts this year compares with their outlays in 2024 shows consumers aren’t fully embracing their own spending caution. n nDespite the historic contraction in the predicted holiday spending dollar amount, only 29% of Americans say they plan to spend less than last year. This reading is up modestly from 23% in October and from November 2024, but well below the 46% recorded in November 2008. Fewer say they will spend more (14% now vs. 19% in October and last year), but the majority of Americans (53%) still say they will spend “about the same.” n n###Embeddable### n nBottom Line n nConsumer attitudes about the job market and overall economy slipped in November to their worst levels in over a year, seemingly chilling their gift-buying mood. Though now over, the protracted government shutdown, which delayed pay for federal workers and disrupted key benefit programs, likely contributed to the dampened mood. n nConsumers’ latest average holiday spending estimate of $778 represents the sharpest year-over-year decline Gallup has recorded, even exceeding 2008 when holiday retail sales actually contracted. Yet, with far fewer Americans today than in 2008 saying they will spend less than last year, it’s possible they aren’t as shaken as the dollar figure conveys. n nRetailers may also hope that with the shutdown over, consumer attitudes and enthusiasm for holiday spending will rebound to their prior levels. The public would still be in a subpar economic state of mind — one that has contributed to Trump’s anemic job approval ratings since June. But it could be enough to prevent the 2025 holiday season from turning out like 2008. n nStay up to date with the latest insights by following @Gallup on X and on Instagram. n nLearn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works. n n###Embeddable###