Several key U.S. economic indicators were affected this week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which delayed the release of international trade and wholesale trade data. In response, private-sector metrics have been used to maintain insight into economic activity.
According to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), light vehicle sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million in September, up from 16.1 million in August. This increase was largely driven by a surge in electric vehicle (EV) purchases ahead of the expiration of tax credits at the end of the month. EVs accounted for 11.8% of total vehicle sales in September, marking a new high.
Consumer borrowing remained nearly unchanged in August, rising at a 0.1% annual rate after a revised 4.3% gain in July. Credit card balances dropped 5.5% following a 10.3% spike the previous month, while nonrevolving debt—such as auto and student loans—increased by 2.0%, building on a 2.2% rise in July.
The Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI) improved slightly in September, climbing from 97.7 to 98.3, a 0.6% increase. Although the index has stayed below 100 since March 2022—indicating subdued consumer spending momentum—it has shown a gradual recovery since hitting a low of 94.3 in July 2024. The SMI tracks spending trends using transaction data from Visa credit and debit cards.
Global semiconductor sales rose 4.4% in August to $64.9 billion, with gains across all regions. The Americas and Asia Pacific (excluding China and Japan) saw the largest percentage increases. Compared to the same period last year, sales were up 21.7%. Semiconductor manufacturing relies on over 500 different chemicals, with advanced chips requiring even more specialized materials.
Rail transport data from the Association of American Railroads showed chemical railcar loadings totaled 32,919 for the week ending October 4th. This represents a 1.6% year-over-year increase based on a 13-week moving average and a 0.9% rise year-to-date. Loadings have increased in seven of the past 13 weeks.
U.S. production of major plastic resins was 8.9 billion pounds in August, down 3.0% from July but unchanged compared to August 2024. Year-to-date output stood at 67.6 billion pounds, matching the same period last year, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC).
Sales and internal use of plastic resins totaled 8.6 billion pounds in August, a 1.7% decline from the prior month but a 2.7% increase from the same month a year earlier. Cumulative sales and captive use for the year reached 67.4 billion pounds, up 0.2% year-over-year.
In energy markets:
• Oil prices edged higher despite a ceasefire in Gaza and OPEC+’s decision to proceed with a planned November production increase.
• Natural gas prices dipped slightly due to an 80 billion cubic feet inventory build.
• The combined oil and gas rig count decreased by one to 540.
Additional economic data and analyses are available to ACC members via ACCexchange, and further reports can be accessed through the ACC online store.
— news from American Chemistry Council
— News Original —
Weekly Chemistry and Economic Trends (10
Note: International Trade and Wholesale Trade were scheduled for release this week but are unavailable due to the federal government shutdown. Where available, we will include alternative private-sector data in order to continue monitoring the U.S. economy. n nAccording to the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), light vehicle sales rose to a 16.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in September, up from 16.1 million in August. The increase was driven by a surge in sales of electric vehicles, as tax credits expired at the end of September. Electric vehicles made up a record high 11.8% of vehicle sales in September. n nBorrowing was essentially flat in August as consumer debt rose 0.1% annual rate, after gaining an upwardly revised 4.3% in July. Credit card balances fell 5.5% after jumping 10.3% in July, while balances on nonrevolving debt, such as student loans and car loans, leaped 2.0%, on top of a 2.2% rise in July. n nThe headline Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI) moved up in September, rising from 97.7 in August to 98.3, or 0.6%. Except for July of this year, SMI has been below 100 since March 2022, indicating weakness in spending by US consumers (index values above 100 signal strengthening momentum). Nevertheless, the index has been trending higher since it bottomed out at 94.3 in July 2024. SMI is an economic indicator measuring consumer spending based on purchasing data from Visa-branded credit and debit cards. n nGlobal semiconductor sales rose 4.4% in August to $64.9 billion. All regions gained with the largest percentage increases in the Americas and Asia Pacific (excl. China & Japan). Compared to a year ago, sales were up 21.7% Y/Y. The most basic computer chip uses over 500 different chemicals in its creation, with advanced chips using even more high-purity chemistries. n nAccording to data released by the Association of American Railroads, chemical railcar loadings were up to 32,919 for the week ending October 4th. Loadings were up 1.6% Y/Y (13-week MA), up 0.9% YTD/YTD and have been on the rise for seven of the last 13 weeks. n nU.S. production of major plastic resins totaled 8.9 billion pounds in August, a decrease of 3.0% compared to the prior month, but flat compared to the same month in 2024, according to ACC. Year-to-date production was 67.6 billion pounds, essentially the same compared to the same period in 2024. n nSales and captive (internal) use of major plastic resins totaled 8.6 billion pounds during August, a decrease of 1.7% compared to the prior month, and a 2.7% increase from the same month one year earlier. Year-to-date sales and captive use were 67.4 billion pounds, ahead by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2024. n nEnergy Wrap-Up n n• Oil prices were slightly higher compared to a week ago despite the ceasefire in Gaza and an OPEC+ announcement to move forward with an incremental production hike for November. n n• Natural gas prices edged slightly lower on a solid 80BCF inventory gain. n n• The combined oil & gas rig count fell by one to 540. n nFor More Information n nACC members can access additional data, economic analyses, presentations, outlooks, and weekly economic updates through ACCexchange: https://accexchange.sharepoint.com/Economics/SitePages/Home.aspx n nIn addition to this weekly report, ACC offers numerous other economic data that cover worldwide production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial performance measures, macroeconomic data, plus much more. To order, visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/. n nEvery effort has been made in the preparation of this weekly report to provide the best available information and analysis. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material