Despite a turbulent year marked by trade tensions, market volatility, and the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, the national economy demonstrated notable endurance in 2025. While official data releases resumed after a prolonged pause, the figures revealed a complex picture: job creation remained steady in November, yet unemployment ticked upward. Consumer spending held firm, but wage increases slowed. Inflation showed signs of cooling, though it remains above ideal levels.
Economic forecasts from earlier in the year had predicted severe consequences from trade policies, including runaway inflation or a recession. However, recent indicators suggest otherwise. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to show robust expansion in the third quarter, with full-year output likely growing at approximately 1.5 percent after inflation adjustments—a slowdown from 2024 but far from an economic downturn.
Still, many Americans enter 2026 with financial anxiety. Concerns about job security and household budgets persist, and optimism about improvement remains limited. The resilience of macroeconomic metrics does not always align with individual experiences, highlighting a gap between aggregate data and personal economic well-being.
Analysts note that while the economy avoided collapse, the uneven distribution of financial stability continues to challenge policymakers. The delayed data flow caused by the shutdown introduced complications in interpretation, but overall trends indicate the nation remains in a state of cautious equilibrium.
— news from The New York Times
— News Original —
The Economy Survived 2025, But Many Americans Are Reeling
After a chaotic year filled with trade wars, market gyrations and the longest government shutdown in history, the U.S. economy has, once again, proved more resilient than many forecasters feared.
But “resilient” isn’t quite the same thing as “good.”
Many Americans are entering 2026 worried about their jobs, stressed about their finances and unconvinced that things will improve in the new year.
The flow of official economic data resumed last week after a prolonged delay caused by the government shutdown. The reports were muddled by technical quirks related to the shutdown, but on balance they suggested the economy remained stuck in the same uneasy limbo it was in before the data blackout began.
Job growth was decent in November, but unemployment rose. Retail sales were solid, but wage growth slowed. Inflation cooled, but remains elevated.
That mixed picture is far better than the dire forecasts of last spring, when many economists warned that President Trump’s tariffs would lead to runaway inflation, a recession — or both.
Instead, data this week is expected to show that gross domestic product, which measures overall economic output, grew at a robust pace in the third quarter. Full-year data, when it becomes available early next year, is likely to show that output, adjusted for inflation, grew at about a 1.5 percent pace in 2025, a downshift from 2024 but far from a recession.
Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.
Thank you for your patience while we verify access.
Already a subscriber? Log in.
Want all of The Times? Subscribe.