Economic analysis often relies on official data from institutions like the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Census Bureau, which provide reliable but infrequent updates. However, alternative metrics can offer more timely signals about economic shifts. These less traditional measures, while not formally recognized, may reveal emerging patterns before conventional reports do. n nOne such indicator is migration data tracked by U-Haul. The company analyzes one-way rental transactions across the U.S. and Canada, drawing insights from over 2.5 million moves annually. In 2024, Texas ranked second in net population growth, with arrivals at 50.3 percent and departures at 49.7 percent. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metro area led all urban regions in expansion. This influx tends to include younger, more educated individuals, contributing positively to the labor force and overall economic momentum. n nAnother emerging signal comes from consumer lunch habits. Despite rising office occupancy, fewer workers are dining out during the week. Circana, a data analytics firm, reported a decline in foot traffic to food venues from 2023 to 2024, while grocery purchases rose. This shift suggests employees are preparing meals at home to reduce expenses—a behavior often linked to financial caution. n nCardboard box manufacturing is also viewed by some economists as a proxy for consumer activity. Since packaging demand correlates with retail sales, fluctuations in production can reflect broader spending trends. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, output in the corrugated box sector dropped in late 2020, surged by late 2022, and declined again in early 2024. This trajectory mirrors changes in wage growth, which peaked in summer 2022 and has since trended downward. n nCopper production serves as another indirect gauge of economic health. The metal is vital for electrical systems, construction, and electric vehicles. CRU Group forecasts a sharp rise in copper demand between 2020 and 2040, driven by energy infrastructure development and population growth. Sustained increases in usage could signal expanding industrial activity. n nFrozen pizza sales have also gained attention as a potential barometer of household budgets. Placer.ai notes that during periods of economic uncertainty, consumers often choose affordable grocery options over dining out. Sales of frozen pizza reached around $7 billion in 2024 and are expected to grow by 6 percent each year. This trend may reflect ongoing consumer wariness about financial conditions. n nPet adoption rates offer further insight. With pet-related services rising nearly 9 percent in one year according to Accenture’s analysis of Labor Department data, ownership costs have climbed. During economic downturns, adoption typically falls and surrender rates rise. While nearly one in five Americans adopted a pet in the early pandemic period, 2022 saw more animals entering shelters than leaving—Houston Humane Society recorded a 50 percent increase in surrenders compared to pre-pandemic levels. n nLastly, nighttime satellite imagery provides a visual representation of economic activity. Brightness levels from residential and commercial lighting can reflect population movement, energy use, and regional development. Accenture’s data shows a general upward trend in Texas’ nighttime luminosity since 2020, though temporary drops occurred—such as in July 2024 due to Hurricane Beryl and in July 2022 during a severe heatwave. These anomalies highlight how external shocks impact observable economic behavior. n— news from Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts (.gov)
— News Original —
Seven unconventional economic indicators
economicsSeven unconventional economic indicators n nAugust 2025 | By Spencer Grubbs n nCardboard box production or sack lunches aren’t typical measures of state and national economies. It’s much more common to consult statistical reports from federal agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau for precise, dependable data that inform wide-ranging policy and spending decisions. But these reports usually are released once a month at most, while those studying the economy may need more frequent updates to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy. n nThat’s where unconventional economic indicators come in. During the height of the pandemic, for example, the Comptroller’s office examined factors including airline travel and restaurant reservations to continuously monitor real-time trends. n nThe following indicators, as unofficial and unusual as they are, could preview our economic position long before we see the bigger picture from official reports. n nWasn’t born in Texas, but got here as fast as I could n nU-Haul tracks migration trends to and from every U.S. state and Canadian province, compiling data from more than 2.5 million of its one-way truck, trailer and portable moving container transactions annually. In 2024, the moving company ranked Texas as the state with the second-highest growth rate, as determined by the difference between the percentage of annual arrivals (50.3 percent) and annual departures (49.7 percent). Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington was the top metro for growth in 2024, according to these data. Domestic migration helps fuel the state’s economy, as many people moving here trend younger and more educated than the overall population and therefore can boost Texas’ workforce. n nSack lunching n nAlthough slow to recover from pre-pandemic levels, office occupancy is on the rise as more people return to traditional work schedules. But many of those workers are not returning to “lunching out” frequently during the work week. Circana, an analytics and technology company, found that lunchtime traffic at food establishments decreased from 2023 to 2024, while purchases of food at grocery stores increased. These data suggest more office workers are lunching on food from home as one way to save money. n nThis begs the question: Is a breakroom refrigerator stocked full of brown bag lunches a sign that the economy’s in a slump? n nThinking outside the box n nSome economists believe cardboard box production is a strong indicator of the economy’s health: When cardboard box production is up, they say, so is the economy, because demand for boxes is often directly related to consumer spending. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tracks the consumer price index by industry, including “Corrugated and Solid Fiber Box Manufacturing.” These data show that box manufacturing dipped in late 2020 (reflecting diminished spending during the pandemic), peaked in late 2022 and dipped again in early 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, year-over-year percent change in private industry wages and salaries peaked in summer 2022 and has been on the decline since then. n nCu soon n nCopper manufacturing could be another indirect indicator of how well the economy is doing, because the metal is an essential component for everything from jewelry to the wiring in our home appliances to the electric transmission infrastructure that powers homes and businesses. In recent years, copper also has played an important role in the production of electric vehicles. CRU Group, a global market research and consulting firm, projects copper demand to skyrocket from 2020 to 2040, as the energy industry expands to keep up with population growth. n nRolling in the (frozen) dough n nRestaurant dining, takeout and delivery may be cut from the family budget when money is tight — and that includes pizza. Placer.ai, a market intelligence and data analytics company, has found that when economic anxieties are high, consumers often go for less-expensive frozen pizza from the grocery store rather than eating out or having it delivered. Frozen pizza sales, which were approximately $7 billion in 2024, are projected to increase 6 percent annually, and some say it’s because consumers are skittish about the economy in the near term. n nPet adoption n nOwning and caring for pets is not cheap, and historically high inflation over the last few years didn’t help. Using data from the U.S. Department of Labor, the consulting firm Accenture found that just in the last year, pet services (such as grooming, boarding and pet sitting) have risen nearly 9 percent. During times of economic hardship, fewer people may adopt pets, and more may surrender pets they already have. According to PBS, nearly 20 percent of Americans adopted a cat or dog during the first 14 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, but in 2022, as the pandemic waned, 4 percent more pets entered shelters than left. That year, the Houston Humane Society reported a 50 percent increase in pet surrenders compared with pre-pandemic years. n nNight lights n nSatellite imagery of lighting from homes and businesses at night captures human activity and can indicate economic vigor. These data can register factors affecting the economy such as weather and policy shifts, show growth, and fill holes in the statistics available in rural or quickly changing areas. According to data compiled by Accenture, the cumulative monthly average nighttime brightness in Texas has gradually increased since 2020, but the state also has experienced spikes and dips during that time. For example, nighttime brightness cratered in July 2024, when Hurricane Beryl made landfall near Matagorda and traveled through northeast Texas, as well as in July 2022, when the state experienced an extreme heatwave.