In November, small business confidence improved slightly as the index rose by 0.8 points to reach 99.0. Six out of ten components showed gains, with expectations for real sales growth showing notable improvement. However, uncertainty surrounding capital spending plans over the next three to six months contributed to a rise in the overall Uncertainty Index. A persistent challenge for owners remained the difficulty in finding skilled workers. n nThe Visa Spending Momentum Index (SMI), which tracks consumer expenditure using transaction data from Visa credit and debit cards, increased by 0.6% to 99.2, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain. Though still below the neutral threshold of 100—indicating that spending momentum remains weak—the latest figure is the highest since July. Readings above 100 suggest strengthening consumer activity, while those below point to softness. n nCiting signs of a cooling labor market, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third straight rate cut. The federal funds rate now stands between 3.50% and 3.75%, a full 1.75 percentage points lower than the peak in September 2024 when the easing cycle began. n nThe U.S. trade deficit narrowed by $6.4 billion in September, falling to $52.8 billion—the lowest level in five years. This reduction stemmed from exports growing at a faster pace than imports. Gains in shipments of industrial supplies and materials—including large movements of nonmonetary gold—and consumer goods outweighed declines in capital goods exports. On the import side, increases in consumer goods and industrial inputs were partially offset by reduced inflows of capital equipment. n nWholesale inventories climbed 0.5% in September after a 0.1% drop the previous month. The largest inventory increases occurred in computer systems, professional and electrical equipment, as well as pharmaceuticals and metals. Meanwhile, wholesale sales dipped 0.2%, dragged down by weaker demand for computer, electrical, and professional gear, along with machinery, petroleum, and farm products. Compared to the same period last year, sales were up 4.8%, while inventories rose 1.8%. The ratio of inventories to sales increased to 1.33 from 1.28 in August. n nJob openings held steady at 7.7 million in October. The voluntary job separation rate, often seen as a barometer of labor market confidence, edged downward, while layoffs saw a marginal uptick. n nConsumer borrowing expanded in October, rising at a 2.2% annualized rate, down from a revised 2.6% in September. Credit card balances surged 4.9% following a 4.0% increase the prior month. Nonrevolving debt—including student and auto loans—grew 1.2%, moderating from a 2.1% rise in September. n nGlobal semiconductor sales reached $72.7 billion in October, a 4.7% monthly increase. All regions reported growth, led by other Asia/Pacific (+7.2%) and China (+4.4%). On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 27.2%. n nAccording to the Association of American Railroads, chemical railcar loadings totaled 32,548 for the week ending December 6. Loadings were down 0.1% compared to the same period last year (13-week moving average), but up 1.2% year-to-date. Activity has risen in eight of the past 13 weeks. n nChemical wholesale sales declined 0.9% in September after a 1.3% rise in August. Inventories in the sector edged up 0.2% following a 1.5% drop the prior month. Year-on-year, sales were 4.7% higher, while inventories were 2.5% lower. The inventories-to-sales ratio climbed to 1.09 from 1.07 in August, compared to 1.17 a year earlier. n nDue to a recent government shutdown, U.S. production data is being released one month behind international counterparts. To maintain consistency, the Global CPRI will align with U.S. reporting schedules while continuing to reflect the most recent trends for other regions until U.S. data resumes normal timing. n nChina’s chemical output dipped 0.1% in October, reflecting lingering disruptions from Super Typhoon Ragasa, which hit southern China in late September. Despite this temporary setback, strong exports of chemicals and electric vehicles signaled continued underlying strength in manufacturing. Output was up 9.7% compared to the same month last year. n nEuropean chemical production fell 0.5% in October as elevated energy prices and uncertain trade conditions prompted ongoing restructuring. Output in Germany and France showed modest improvement, while other major economies saw declines. Compared to the previous year, production was down 2.6%. n nSouth American chemical output dropped 0.5% in October, influenced by trade tensions between the U.S. and Brazil and economic instability in Argentina. Year-on-year, production was 1.9% lower. n nThe U.S. Chemical Production Regional Index (CPRI) rose 0.1% in September, based on a three-month moving average to reduce volatility. Most regions saw gains, except the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where output declined. Overall, the index was 1.4% higher than a year ago. n nEnergy Wrap-Up n n• Oil prices declined during the week despite rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. n n• U.S. natural gas prices retreated from seasonal highs due to forecasts of milder weather during the holiday period. n n• Last week recorded the first significant withdrawal (177 BCF) from natural gas storage as colder temperatures spread across the country. n n• The combined oil and gas rig count increased by five to 542. n nFor More Information n nACC members can access additional data, economic analyses, presentations, outlooks, and weekly economic updates through ACCexchange: https://accexchange.sharepoint.com/Economics/SitePages/Home.aspx n nIn addition to this weekly report, ACC offers numerous other economic data that cover worldwide production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial performance measures, macroeconomic data, plus much more. To order, visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/. n nEvery effort has been made in the preparation of this weekly report to provide the best available information and analysis. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material.
