Consumer Price Index, Real Earnings, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Housing Starts and Permits, Import and Export Prices, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were all scheduled for release this week but remain unavailable due to the ongoing federal government shutdown. Where official data is missing, private-sector indicators are being used to track economic developments in the U.S. n nThe NFIB’s small business optimism index declined by 2.0 points in September, settling at 98.8 after increases in July and August. Challenges related to supply chains and inflation remained prominent concerns for small enterprises. The share of business owners citing supply disruptions rose from the prior month, with 64% indicating such issues were affecting their operations. In addition, taxes and workforce quality were jointly reported as the top challenge facing small firms. n nAccording to the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, manufacturing activity in New York State showed modest improvement in October, rebounding from a drop in September. The general business conditions index jumped 19 points to 10.7, marking the third positive reading in the past four months. Indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment all advanced, while both input and output prices continued to rise. Although capital investment plans remained subdued, business sentiment improved, with close to half of surveyed firms anticipating better conditions in the coming months. n nIn contrast, the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a contraction in regional factory activity. The current general activity index plunged 36 points to -12.8, the weakest level since April. While the shipments index fell 20 points to 6.0—still signaling growth—the new orders index climbed 6 points to 18.2. Employment and price levels continued to rise, with inflationary pressures intensifying compared to the previous month. Firms remained optimistic about the next six months, with expectations improving from September. Regarding capital spending plans for 2026, 36% of respondents projected higher outlays, while 19% anticipated reductions. n nHomebuilder confidence strengthened in October, as reflected in the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rising 5 points to 37—the highest since April. Gains were observed across current sales, buyer traffic, and six-month sales outlooks. The survey also found that 38% of builders reduced home prices during the month, with an average discount of 6%. n nFed Beige Book Highlights n nReleased two weeks ahead of each FOMC meeting, the Beige Book summarizes economic conditions across the twelve Federal Reserve districts. n n• Overall economic activity was largely unchanged since the last report, with three districts noting slight to moderate growth, five reporting no change, and four observing a slight decline. n n• Consumer spending on retail goods edged lower recently, though auto sales received a boost in some regions due to strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September. n n• Demand for leisure and hospitality services from international travelers weakened further, while domestic demand remained stable. However, spending by high-income consumers on luxury travel and accommodations remained robust. n n• Lower- and middle-income households continued to prioritize discounts and promotions amid persistent price increases and economic uncertainty. n n• Manufacturing performance varied by region, with most districts citing difficult conditions driven by higher tariffs and weakening overall demand. n n• Activity in agriculture, energy, and transportation sectors declined across reporting districts. n n• Conditions in financial services and other interest-rate-sensitive industries like residential and commercial real estate were mixed. Some districts noted improved business lending due to lower borrowing costs, while others reported sluggish activity. n n• Outlooks for future economic growth differed by region and sector. Sentiment improved in a few districts, with some contacts expecting stronger demand over the next 6 to 12 months. However, many others expect ongoing uncertainty to constrain economic performance. n n• One district highlighted the potential negative impact on growth from a prolonged government shutdown. n nRegarding chemicals, the Dallas Fed noted in its Beige Book contribution: “Among nondurables, food manufacturing continued to see strong gains, while chemical production held steady as trade policy and global oversupply put downward pressure on export demand for basic chemicals.” n nRailroad data from the Association of American Railroads showed chemical railcar loadings totaled 31,048 for the week ending October 11th. On a year-over-year basis (13-week moving average), loadings increased 0.8%, while year-to-date figures were up 1.6%. Loadings have risen in six of the past 13 weeks. n nSoda ash output declined by 9.2% in July to 963,000 metric tons. Compared to the same month last year, production was down 5.6%. Inventories at the end of July dropped 6.6% from June’s peak to 408,000 metric tons. Soda ash is used in the production of glass, aluminum, detergents, and various chemical products. n nEnergy Sector Summary n n• Oil prices softened this week following news of a peace agreement in Gaza and updated IEA projections indicating a larger supply surplus in 2025 and 2026. n n• Natural gas prices dipped below $3 per million BTU after a solid increase in storage levels last week. n n• The combined oil and gas rig count decreased by two to 538. n nFor additional resources, ACC members can access economic data, analyses, presentations, and weekly updates via ACCexchange: https://accexchange.sharepoint.com/Economics/SitePages/Home.aspx n nBeyond this weekly report, the American Chemistry Council provides extensive economic data covering global production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial metrics, and macroeconomic indicators. Visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/ to order. n nEvery effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the information presented in this report. However, neither the American Chemistry Council nor its employees, agents, or affiliates guarantees the completeness or accuracy of the data, nor assumes liability for any decisions based on it.
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Note: Consumer Price Index, Real Earnings, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Housing Starts and Permits, Import and Export Prices, and Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were scheduled for release this week but are unavailable due to the federal government shutdown. Where available, we will include alternative private-sector data in order to continue monitoring the U.S. economy. n nFollowing gains in July and August, the NFIB’s small business optimism index slipped 2.0 points in September to 98.8. Supply chain and inflation issues remained top of mind on Main Street. Up from August, nearly two-thirds (64%) of business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were impacting their business. Taxes and labor quality were tied for the most important business problem in September. n nAccording to the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, manufacturing activity increased modestly in New York State in October, recovering from September’s decline. The general business conditions index rose 19 points to 10.7, the third expansionary level in the last four months. The new orders, shipments, and employment indexes also climbed, with both input and selling prices accelerating. Although capital plans remained soft, firms became more optimistic about the outlook, with nearly half expecting improved conditions in the months ahead. n nIn contrast to the New York survey, manufacturing activity declined in the Philadelphia region, with the current general activity index losing 36 points to -12.8 in October, the lowest level since April, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The shipments index dropped 20 points to 6.0, still indicating expansion, while the new orders index gained 6 points to 18.2. Employment and prices continued to increase, with the latter accelerating from the previous month. Expectations for activity over the next six months remained positive and actually improved from September’s reading. When asked about capital expenditures in 2026, 36% of firms indicated an increase in spending while 19% expected a decrease. n nHomebuilder confidence improved in October as the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index increased to its highest level since April, up 5 points to 37. Current sales activity, buyer traffic, and sales expectations for the next six months all posted gains. The survey revealed that 38% of builders cut prices in October, with the average price reduction coming in at 6%. n nFed Beige Book n nPublished two weeks in advance of each FOMC meeting, the Beige Book presents a summary of recent economic conditions around the twelve Federal Reserve districts. n n• Economic activity changed little on balance since the previous report, with three Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, five reporting no change, and four noting a slight softening. n n• Overall consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks, although auto sales were boosted in some Districts by strong demand for electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of a federal tax credit at the end of September. n n• Demand for leisure and hospitality services by international travelers fell further over the reporting period, while demand by domestic consumers was largely unchanged. Nevertheless, spending by higher-income individuals on luxury travel and accommodation was reportedly strong. n n• Several reports highlighted that lower- and middle-income households continued to seek discounts and promotions in the face of rising prices and elevated economic uncertainty. n n• Manufacturing activity varied by District, and most reports noted challenging conditions due to higher tariffs and waning overall demand. n n• Activity in agriculture, energy, and transportation was generally down among reporting Districts. n n• Conditions in the financial services sector and other interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as residential and commercial real estate, were mixed; some reports noted improved business lending in recent weeks due to lower interest rates, while other reports continued to highlight muted activity. n n• The outlook for future economic growth varied by District and sector. Sentiment reportedly improved in a few Districts, with some contacts expecting an uptick in demand over the next 6 to 12 months. However, many others continued to expect elevated uncertainty to weigh down activity. n n• One District report highlighted the downside risk to growth from a prolonged government shutdown. n nAmong the detailed comments related to chemicals in the Fed’s Beige book, the Dallas Fed noted “Among nondurables, food manufacturing continued to see strong gains, while chemical production held steady as trade policy and global oversupply put downward pressure on export demand for basic chemicals.” n nAccording to data released by the Association of American Railroads, chemical railcar loadings fell to 31,048 for the week ending October 11th. Loadings were up 0.8% Y/Y (13-week MA), up 1.6% YTD/YTD and have been on the rise for six of the last 13 weeks. n nSoda ash production fell by 9.2% in July to 963,000 metric tons. Compared to a year ago, soda ash production was off 5.6%. Inventories at the end of July also moved lower, down 6.6% from June’s recent high level to 408,000 metric tons. Soda ash is used in glass, aluminum, detergents and other chemicals. n nEnergy Wrap-Up n n• Oil prices eased this week on a peace deal in Gaza and new IEA forecasts projecting an increased supply gut for 2025 and 2026. n n• Natural gas prices fell below the $3 mark following a solid storage build last week. n n• The combined oil & gas rig count fell by two to 538. n nFor More Information n nACC members can access additional data, economic analyses, presentations, outlooks, and weekly economic updates through ACCexchange: https://accexchange.sharepoint.com/Economics/SitePages/Home.aspx n nIn addition to this weekly report, ACC offers numerous other economic data that cover worldwide production, trade, shipments, inventories, price indices, energy, employment, investment, R&D, EH&S, financial performance measures, macroeconomic data, plus much more. To order, visit http://store.americanchemistry.com/. n nEvery effort has been made in the preparation of this weekly report to provide the best available information and analysis. However, neither the American Chemistry Council, nor any of its employees, agents or other assigns makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any liability or responsibility for any use, or the results of such use, of any information or data disclosed in this material.